A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
